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Regulation policy force the real estate market "golden nine" autumn thick

regulation policy force the real estate market "golden nine" autumn thick

September 14, 2016

[China paint information] in early September, the real estate market entered the traditional "golden nine" sales peak season. However, due to the release of a series of regulatory policies such as the Ministry of housing and urban rural development at the beginning of this month, the curve can be reanalyzed, and the market transaction response is flat, among which the first tier cities have cooled significantly. On the 12th, the statistics of many market institutions showed that this year's golden September did not have a hot start in previous years

according to the statistics of Weiye I love my family group Market Research Institute, the real estate market in Beijing fell both month on month last week: a total of 2692 new commercial residential houses (excluding affordable housing) were signed, down 15.6% month on month in the 36th week; A total of 6298 second-hand houses were signed, down 4.6% month on month

Weiye I love my family group vice president Hujinghui told that regardless of apartment products and self occupied commercial housing, the new housing market in Beijing has actually been hovering at a low temperature, and the trading volume of ordinary residential buildings is very small. Being able to return 1000 units last week shows that the new housing market still has a certain "golden nine silver ten" effect. "However, due to the gradual saturation of the development of Beijing's new housing market and the declining proportion of transactions, there are not many opportunities for the rise of ordinary housing in Beijing in the future. If there is no supply and transaction growth of apartment products and self owned housing, the transactions in the new housing market will continue to be low or normal."

on the other hand, at the level of market supply, there has not been a large number of centralized selling in this year's "golden September". Guoyi, marketing director of Yahao agency, told that the halo of the "golden nine and silver ten" peak season in the past two years has gradually passed away, and more developers will choose to "catch up" with the annual performance at the beginning of the year. In the first half of this year, a large number of real estate enterprises have completed their tasks on time or even exceeded their targets, and the sales pressure in the second half of this year has decreased sharply. In the case of obvious shortage of future inventory and new inventory, real estate enterprises in the second half of this year are more Considering improving their profit margin, Instead of accelerating the pace of de industrialization, there has been no outbreak of centralized supply since September

in fact, the flat start of the "golden ninth" real estate market is not only reflected in the Beijing market. On the 12th, data released by relevant institutions showed that the property market trading volume of 25 first -, second - and third tier cities monitored last week was generally flat, with the first - and third tier cities representing cities falling significantly, and the second tier cities rising slightly month on month

according to the data of relevant institutions, on the whole, the trading volume of the four first tier cities decreased month on month, and only the trading volume in Beijing increased; It also showed a downward trend year-on-year. Jjg1136 ⑵ 017 did not touch the measurement characteristics of the extensometer system, of which Shenzhen had the highest decline. Specifically, the transaction area in Beijing last week was 183000 square meters, an increase of 73.3% month on month and a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%; Guangzhou sold 310000 square meters, a month on month decrease of 6.1% and a year-on-year increase of 93.3%; The transaction volume in Shenzhen was 56000 square meters, with a month on month decrease of 35.2% and a year-on-year decrease of 55.8%; The transaction volume in Shanghai was 347000 square meters, with a month on month decrease of 55.5%, and a year-on-year decrease. After all, everyone did not know so much about the experimental machine, and was 30.1% less

among the second and third tier cities, 70% of the cities' trading volume fell. Specifically, the transaction area of 16 second tier cities increased by 22% month on month, and the total transaction volume of five third tier representative cities fell by 8.2% month on month. According to the data of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, Xiamen and Sanya saw the most significant month on month decline in the second tier cities last week. Among them, the transaction area in Xiamen last week was only 24700 square meters, with a month on month decrease of 65.4% and a year-on-year decrease of 52.8%

it is worth mentioning that on September 5, Xiamen announced the resumption of purchase restrictions. Industry analysts believe that the rigid demand market has been greatly impacted by the new purchase restriction policy. Zhang Dawei, chief analyst of Centaline real estate, said, "as the first second tier city to introduce purchase restrictions, house prices in Xiamen rose 4.6% month on month in July and 39.6% year-on-year, both in the forefront. Therefore, the need for regulation is very strong."

Zhang Dawei told that in addition, the same type of housing prices rose faster in Nanjing, Hefei, Hangzhou, Tianjin, Fuzhou, Huizhou and other cities. In his view, "in the future, as long as these cities with fast rising house prices are likely to introduce upgraded regulation policies". Specifically, he believes that the first and second tier cities with rapid house price rise, including some first and second tier cities and surrounding radiation areas, may successively introduce restrictive policies, including credit. After all, the result is that the component can easily withstand the tightening of mechanical load related to the driving process, purchase restriction policies, etc

On September 6, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development said that it would improve the macro-control of real estate. The policy content released on the same day stressed that according to the actual differentiation of the real estate market, we should adhere to classified regulation and implement policies according to the city. We should strengthen government regulation and give full play to the role of the market, so that the real estate industry can adapt to economic and social development and the living needs of the masses. At the same time, a national real estate inventory and transaction monitoring platform was established to form a normalized real estate market monitoring mechanism

in view of the policy trend of the real estate market, Hu huaru, an analyst at Guojin securities, pointed out that inventory differentiation determines volume price differentiation and policy differentiation. Subsequently, it is not ruled out that the real estate policy of some hot cities will be further tightened, but considering that the pressure of destocking in most cities is still large, classified regulation and urban implementation will still be the main tone

Hu huaru said that the Ministry of housing and urban rural development stressed that government regulation and market mechanisms promote each other, which means that the relationship between policy and market is coordinated and mutually adaptive, and it is not appropriate to think about real estate regulation policies with opposite thinking. On this basis, he believes that with the continuation of market differentiation, the concentration of the real estate industry will be further improved. In addition, he further pointed out that the current rise in land prices has become a core factor threatening the profitability of real estate enterprises. "The rapid rise of land price brings great uncertainty to the realization of land, and the reform breakthrough in land value-added tax and other aspects may be the solution"

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